India’s recent meeting with the Taliban—between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and the Taliban’s acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai—has sparked significant speculation.
Analysts see this as part of India’s attempt to expand its influence with Afghanistan’s leadership amid shifting regional dynamics.
Gradual engagement with the Taliban
India’s approach to engaging with the Taliban has been cautious but steady:
Investments and aid: India has invested over $3 billion in Afghanistan over the past two decades in aid and reconstruction.
Development and humanitarian efforts: The Indian Ministry of External Affairs emphasized regional cooperation, trade, and support for Afghanistan’s health sector and refugees.
Reopening embassies: In 2022, India sent a technical team to partially reopen its embassy in Kabul. The Taliban recently appointed a consul in Mumbai, signalling growing bilateral ties.
Strategic and regional shifts
The timing of this engagement appears significant:
Pakistan tensions: India’s meeting with the Taliban followed its condemnation of Pakistan’s airstrikes in Afghanistan.
Taliban autonomy: With strained ties with Pakistan, the Taliban seeks to demonstrate independence by engaging with regional players, including India.
Experts’ views on India’s strategy
Observers believe this is less of a strategic pivot and more a necessity dictated by ground realities:
Engagement without recognition: Kabir Taneja of the Observer Research Foundation notes that India’s approach reflects an acknowledgment of the Taliban’s control in Kabul while remaining cautious.
Ethical dilemmas: Critics argue India’s engagement lacks a principled stance on issues like the Taliban’s ban on girls’ education, which challenges India’s democratic image.
Challenges and opportunities
India faces several dilemmas in deepening ties:
Security risks: Concerns over radicalisation and terrorism persist, complicating efforts to issue Afghan visas for education, trade, and healthcare.
Lack of regional influence: Analysts highlight India’s limited leverage compared to countries like Qatar, China, and Turkey, which have more established ties with the Taliban.
Isolation risk: By focusing solely on the Taliban, India risks side-lining Afghanistan’s opposition and broader socio-political dynamics.
The way forward
While India’s engagement with the Taliban is a step toward staying relevant in the region, critics caution against relying too heavily on the group amid Afghanistan’s volatile political climate. A broader, more inclusive approach may be necessary to safeguard long-term interests in Afghanistan.
Sources: Al Jazeera