Israel’s multilayered missile defence system is under severe strain as Iran intensifies its retaliatory missile strikes, raising concerns about the sustainability of Israel’s defences without increased US support.
An Israeli official told The Washington Post that Israel’s missile defence systems, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow, and US-supplied Patriot and THAAD systems, may only remain effective for 10 to 20 days without new interceptor supplies from the United States.
“They will need to select what they want to intercept,” the Israeli official said, noting that the system is already “overwhelmed” by Iran’s barrage of advanced ballistic missiles.
Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, Abdolrahim Mousavi, escalated tensions by urging residents of Tel Aviv and Haifa to evacuate immediately, warning of “punitive” attacks in retaliation for Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, which began Friday with strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities.
Iranian state media reported that an Israeli aircraft was downed in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, with a search underway for the pilot.
Brigadier General Alireza Talaee Nik claimed Iran deployed a new, advanced missile on Tuesday that evaded Israel’s defences, striking a security and intelligence centre despite US-assisted air defences, said Tasnim news agency.
Nik asserted that Israel’s strategic endurance is waning, predicting that “its back will break as time goes by.”
Israel’s missile defence systems faced significant challenges over the weekend. On Friday, Iranian missiles penetrated defences, narrowly missing the Israel Defence Forces headquarters but hitting central Tel Aviv. On Sunday, a missile struck a major oil refinery near Haifa, taking it offline.
Tal Inbar, an Israeli missile expert, highlighted the high cost of Israel’s Arrow system interceptors, priced at $3 million each, which are critical for countering Iran’s heavy ballistic missiles but less effective against the volume of attacks.
In contrast, the Iron Dome, effective against short-range rockets from groups like Hamas, is inadequate against Iran’s advanced missiles, likened to “shooting a 9-millimeter pistol” at high-speed targets.
Inbar noted that Israel’s interceptor stockpile depletion could force a ceasefire, as seen in 2014 with Hamas when Israel sought a truce days before running out of interceptors. With Iran’s estimated 3,000 ballistic missiles, including advanced models like the Haj Qassem, which evaded defenses on Sunday, Israel’s systems are being tested like never before.
Iran’s ability to sustain attacks for weeks, coupled with its use of drones and cruise missiles, further complicates Israel’s defence strategy.
In Washington, President Donald Trump convenes a National Security Council meeting today in the White House Situation Room to discuss potential US involvement in the conflict.
Having informal sources, Trump returned to Washington on Tuesday, cutting short his G7 summit visit in Canada. On Wednesday, he posted on Truth Social, claiming the U.S. knows “exactly” where Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is “hiding,” signalling a hardliner stance but stopping short of committing to direct military action.
The US has already provided defensive support, with Patriot and THAAD systems and a Navy destroyer intercepting Iranian missiles on Friday.
However, a US official emphasised that decisions on further involvement, such as shooting down additional Iranian missiles or drones, rest with the president.
Speculation grows about whether the US will deploy its GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, capable of targeting Iran’s fortified Fordow nuclear facility, which Israel lacks the capability to strike effectively.
As Iran’s missile barrages continue, with over 270 launched since Friday, causing at least 24 deaths in Israel, the conflict’s fifth day sees no sign of de-escalation.
Analysts debate whether the US military build-up, including a Navy Carrier Strike Group led by the USS Nimitz, is a pressure tactic or a prelude to deeper involvement.
With Israel’s defences stretched thin and Iran vowing further retaliation, the Middle East stands on the brink of a broader conflict.
Source; Al Jazeera, Washington Post