Bangladesh’s economy showed early signs of recovery in the first quarter of the 2025–26 fiscal year, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerating to 4.50 per cent on a point-to-point basis at constant prices, according to provisional estimates.
The latest quarterly data mark a significant improvement from the same period of the previous fiscal year, when GDP growth stood at 2.58 per cent, indicating a broad-based turnaround led primarily by the industrial sector, alongside gains in agriculture and services.
In nominal terms, GDP in Q1 of FY26 has been estimated at Tk 13,853,433 million (Tk 13,853 billion), compared with Tk 12,401,032 million (Tk 12,401 billion) in the corresponding quarter of FY25, reflecting strong year-on-year expansion in economic activity.
According to quarterly-based estimates, GDP growth at constant prices for the entire FY25 has been placed at 3.72 per cent. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) noted that this figure differs from the provisional annual GDP estimate prepared on a yearly basis, a gap that will be reconciled through internationally accepted benchmarking methods once final FY25 data are compiled.
Sector-wise, agriculture returned to positive growth in Q1 of FY26, expanding by 2.30 per cent, a sharp turnaround from the 0.60 per cent contraction recorded in the same quarter a year earlier. The recovery points to improved crop output and gradual stabilisation in livestock and fisheries, offering some relief to rural incomes and food supply conditions.
Industry emerged as the main growth engine, posting a robust 6.97 per cent expansion, nearly double the 3.59 per cent growth recorded in Q1 of FY25. Economists see the acceleration as a key driver of the overall economic pickup, supported by improved manufacturing activity, easing energy constraints and a modest recovery in domestic demand. Export-oriented manufacturing industries are believed to have played a significant role.
The services sector also showed improvement, growing by 3.67 per cent in Q1 of FY26 compared with 2.96 per cent in the same quarter last year. The uptick suggests a gradual revival in trade, transport, communications and other service activities that had remained subdued amid economic uncertainty.
While the stronger first-quarter performance signals a gradual recovery after a period of slowdown, economists caution that sustaining momentum will depend on continued policy support, macroeconomic stability and progress in addressing structural challenges. They also note that the quarterly figures are provisional and subject to revision as more comprehensive data become available.
Still, the Q1 GDP numbers offer an encouraging start to FY26, indicating that economic growth is slowly gaining traction across major sectors.
Source: UNB