At 3:00 pm on Thursday, the air in Gopalganj town was thick with the competing blare of campaign loudspeakers. While banners and festoons lined the roads in fewer numbers than in previous years, the shift in the political landscape was unmistakable. The strict election code of conduct has largely erased the poster-plastered memories of past races.
With the Awami League barred from political activities, candidates from the BNP, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, Islami Andolan, Jatiya Party, independents, and several other parties are actively campaigning across Gopalganj’s three constituencies – Gopalganj-1, Gopalganj-2, and Gopalganj-3.
To understand local electoral calculations in a district long dominated by the Awami League, a Jago News correspondent spoke with at least 40 residents across villages, neighborhoods, and remote areas. Some believe the BNP could win one of the three seats, while independent candidates may prevail in the other two. Others suggest the outcome could change if Awami League supporters abstain from voting.
Several residents said public interest in voting has declined without the Awami League, while others feel Hindu voters could play a decisive role this year. However, most were reluctant to disclose which candidate or symbol they would vote for.
Locals also recalled that after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government during the 2024 mass uprising, incidents such as the army attack in Gopalganj and violence surrounding an NCP rally in July last year led to arrests, jail terms, and forced displacement for many residents. In this context, they fear voter turnout may be low. Many said people worry that any untoward incident at polling centers could result in cases, arrests, and displacement, prompting them to keep a low profile.
Gopalganj has long been considered an Awami League stronghold. Although the party is barred from contesting this election, the Jago News team sought to capture ordinary voters’ perspectives in its absence. Visits across several upazilas highlighted that the political equation has shifted, with independents and multiple parties filling the void left by the Awami League.
Local political observers noted that competition was previously limited due to the Awami League’s dominance. This time, without strong local power brokers, the race is more open, generating both curiosity and interest among voters, even as some Awami League supporters remain disengaged.
Changes in voter behaviour are also evident. While some Awami League supporters remain undecided about voting, others who had previously lost interest now see this as an opportunity to express their views. Curiosity about change, especially among young voters, has become a significant factor.
In the absence of the Awami League, personal popularity, local engagement, and direct voter contact have gained prominence. In many cases, a candidate’s personal acceptability is now considered more important than party identity, which could encourage previously inactive voters to turn out.
Residents said they now have an opportunity to vote based on individuals rather than parties. Some believe this could mark the beginning of a new political trend in Gopalganj, with greater diversity of opinion and competition. Analysts, however, emphasize that law and order, polling center management, and voter turnout will play decisive roles in the outcome.
There are also concerns that without a strong party structure, local power groups could exert more influence. As a result, the administration and law enforcement agencies’ role is considered crucial.
Mixed Reactions from Residents
At Kazir Bazar in Latifpur Union of Sadar Upazila (Gopalganj-2), seven or eight middle-aged men drinking tea discussed the election. One said, “Sheikh Selim never came here to ask for votes. I’ve supported the Awami League all my life, but never saw him. This time, at least BNP and independent candidates are seeking votes. I will go to the polling center and vote.”
Another said he would vote but abstain in the referendum. A man over 60 said he would vote only for a local candidate, not someone from outside the area.
Near Haridaspur ferry ghat, eight or nine men aged 50 to 70 discussed local voting trends. A freedom fighter commander from Sadar Upazila said that although Sheikh Hasina had advised people not to vote, he believed locals should cast their ballots. “If anti-liberation forces win, we will be harmed,” he said.
Near the Gopalganj Press Club, four young men playing Ludo said, “I’ve been a voter for 15 years but never voted. Elections were automatic. This time I will vote, but abstain in the referendum.”
Autorickshaw driver Shafiul Islam from Charmanikdah expressed concern over safety and livelihood. “Life comes first, or voting? I earn my living driving a rickshaw. Whether someone becomes MP or minister, how does that help me?”
Liton Mondol from Dignagar village in Maksudpur Upazila said, “There is no ‘boat’ symbol this time. I voted every year. Now I may have to vote for another symbol. It hurts, but if we don’t vote, those who win may file cases against us afterward.”
A tea shop owner in Teghoria village said most customers discuss abstaining. “If there is no chaos or violence on election day, I might go and vote quickly,” he added.
Security and Turnout Concerns
Intelligence reports have warned of attempts to intimidate voters and keep them away from polling centers. Heightened surveillance is underway around high-risk centers, with monitoring of outsiders, political operatives, and suspicious movements. Police are conducting area-based risk assessments and submitting security plans to headquarters.
The president of the Gopalganj Press Club estimated voter turnout at 30–35 percent. He predicted that of the three seats, one could be won by a party-backed candidate, while independents may claim the other two.
Regarding law and order, he said the army has been deployed in advance, with BGB personnel stationed in the area and police increasing checkpoints at town entry points. He warned that any sabotage or unrest may be carried out by supporters of certain candidates, noting that those involved in previous incidents could attempt similar actions again.