When the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) stormed to a landslide victory in Friday’s general election, New Delhi’s response was swift – and carefully calibrated.
In a message posted in Bengali, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated BNP leader Tarique Rahman on what he called a “decisive victory”. Modi pledged support for a “democratic, progressive and inclusive” Bangladesh and said he looked forward to strengthening the “multifaceted relationship” between the neighbours.
The tone was warm. But it was also measured.
A relationship under strain
Since former prime minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India following the Gen Z-led July 2024 uprising, ties between Dhaka and Delhi have cooled sharply. Hasina’s Awami League was barred from contesting the election that returned the BNP to power.
In Bangladesh, resentment toward India had been building even before her fall. Critics accused Delhi of backing an increasingly authoritarian Hasina government. Longstanding disputes over border killings, river water sharing, trade restrictions and political rhetoric deepened mistrust.
Visa services remain largely suspended, cross-border train and bus services have stalled, and flights between Dhaka and Delhi have been sharply reduced.
For India, the challenge now is not whether to engage a BNP-led government – but how.
A complicated history
The BNP is no stranger to Delhi. When the party, led by Tarique’s mother, Khaleda Zia, returned to power in 2001 in coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami, relations with India deteriorated quickly.
Delhi’s concerns centred on two red lines: curbing support for north-eastern insurgent groups and protecting Hindu minorities in Bangladesh.
The 2004 seizure of 10 truckloads of weapons in Chattogram – allegedly destined for Indian rebel groups – became a major flashpoint. Economic ties also faltered, including the collapse of a proposed $3 billion investment by Tata Group.
Trust thinned further over the years. In 2014, Khaleda Zia, then in opposition, cancelled a scheduled meeting with India’s president in what was widely seen as a diplomatic snub.
That uneasy past partly explains why Delhi later invested heavily in Sheikh Hasina’s government.
During her 15 years in office, Hasina delivered what India values most in its neighbourhood: security cooperation against insurgents, expanded connectivity and a government broadly aligned with Indian strategic interests rather than China.
Exile, death sentence and a diplomatic irritant
Now living in exile in Delhi, Hasina faces a death sentence in absentia over the 2024 security crackdown – violence in which the United Nations says around 1,400 people were killed, most by security forces.
India’s refusal to extradite her has complicated any potential reset.
Last month, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar travelled to Dhaka for Khaleda Zia’s funeral and met Tarique Rahman – an early signal that Delhi is keeping diplomatic channels open.
At a recent rally, Tarique declared: “Not Delhi, not Pindi – Bangladesh before everything,” underscoring a pledge of independence from both India and Pakistan.
The Pakistan factor
Pakistan remains an unavoidable – and sensitive – part of the equation.
After Hasina’s fall, Dhaka moved quickly to restore ties with Islamabad. A direct Dhaka-Karachi flight resumed after a 14-year gap. A Pakistani foreign minister visited Bangladesh for the first time in over a decade. Trade between the two countries climbed by 27% in 2024-25.
For India, the optics are hard to ignore.
Analysts say Bangladesh, as a sovereign nation, is entitled to maintain relations with Pakistan. But the speed of renewed engagement has raised eyebrows in Delhi, where strategic rivalry with Islamabad remains intense.
Managed rivalry or meaningful reset?
Despite political turbulence, security cooperation between India and Bangladesh remains substantial. The two countries conduct joint military exercises, coordinated naval patrols and annual defence dialogues. India also operates a $500 million line of credit for defence purchases.
Geography, too, makes estrangement impractical. The two share a 4,096km border. Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia, and India has become Bangladesh’s largest export market in Asia.
Analysts argue that a reset is possible – but it will require restraint on both sides.
Dhaka will need to manage anti-India sentiment at home. Delhi, many say, must tone down inflammatory political rhetoric that has fuelled perceptions in Bangladesh of unequal treatment.
The BNP, returning to power after 17 years, faces a delicate balancing act: reassuring India on security concerns while asserting an independent foreign policy.
Ultimately, the question may not be whether ties can improve, but who moves first.
As analyst Sreeradha Datta put it: “India should take the initiative as the big neighbour. India should do the outreach. Bangladesh has held a robust election; now, engage, see where we can help. I'm hopeful the BNP has learnt the lessons of the past.”
The reset may depend less on speeches and more on whether the bigger neighbour chooses confidence over caution, she said.
Source: BBC