Bangladesh among 6 countries at risk of extreme heat by 2050: Oxford study
Bangladesh is projected to be one of six countries most severely affected by extreme heat by 2050, according to a new international study led by scientists at the University of Oxford.
The research, published in Nature Sustainability on Monday, January 26, warns that escalating heatwaves will increasingly threaten public health, daily life, and economic productivity worldwide.
If current fossil fuel consumption continues, the proportion of the global population exposed to extreme heat could nearly double within the next 25 years. The study estimates that by mid-century, if global temperatures rise 2°C above pre-industrial levels, around 41 percent of the world’s population, approximately 3.79 billion people, will live under extreme heat conditions, compared with 23 percent (1.54 billion) in 2010.
Using high-resolution climate and population models, the researchers measured heat risk through the “Cooling Degree Days” (CDD) index, which estimates the annual demand for cooling to maintain safe indoor temperatures. Areas exceeding 3,000 CDDs per year were classified as “extreme heat zones.” Countries with the largest populations in these zones include India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines.
Lead author Dr Jesus Lizana of Oxford University noted that national average temperatures can mask local risks. “In Bangladesh, most people live in areas where annual cooling demand exceeds 3,000 CDDs,” he said. “This means prolonged exposure to dangerous heat, affecting survival, productivity, and health.”
The study highlights extreme heat as an often-overlooked threat alongside rising sea levels, cyclones, and floods. Experts warn that heatwaves significantly increase the risk of heatstroke, cardiovascular stress, and kidney disease—particularly among children, the elderly, and low-income populations with limited access to cooling systems.
The research also predicts that air-conditioning demand will rise most rapidly in low- and middle-income countries in tropical and subtropical regions. In contrast, wealthier nations in the Global North are expected to see declining heating demand due to milder winters. Countries projected to experience the largest per-capita increases in cooling needs include the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil, while Canada, Russia, Finland, Sweden, and Norway may see reduced heating demand.
Researchers caution that rising air-conditioning use in extreme-heat countries could create a “cooling trap,” increasing energy consumption. If fossil fuels supply this demand, it may accelerate climate change further.
The study concludes that the window to prevent the worst effects of extreme heat is narrowing. Scientists emphasize that keeping global warming close to 1.5°C could significantly reduce the number of people exposed to life-threatening heat.
NS/MHK