BNP rides wave of defecting AL voters, women
In a dramatic turn, a new nationwide survey reveals that a striking 60 per cent of former Awami League supporters are now planning to vote for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in the upcoming 13th Jatiya Sangsad elections.
The BNP has emerged as the clear front-runner ahead of the 13th parliamentary elections, with 70 per cent of voters expressing interest in voting for the party, according to a new nationwide public opinion survey.
The survey also shows that female voters are backing BNP in higher numbers than men, signalling a major political shift.
The findings were presented at a programme held at the Krishibid Institution (KIB) Seminar Hall in Dhaka on Monday, January 5.
The survey was conducted by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) and the results were presented by the organisation’s chief executive officer, Dr Shamim Haider Talukder.
According to the survey, 19 per cent of voters intend to vote for Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami. Among newer political forces, 2.6 per cent of respondents expressed support for the Natioal Citizen Party (NCP), while 1.4 per cent named the Jatiya Party (JP) as their preferred choice.
The survey was conducted between December 20, 2025 and January 1, 2026, covering 20,495 voters across all 300 parliamentary constituencies.
Shift among former Awami League voters
The survey also points to a significant realignment among voters who previously supported the Awami League.
According to the findings, 60 per cent of former Awami League voters now plan to vote for BNP in the upcoming 2026 election.
Among the same group, 25 per cent said they would support Jamaat-e-Islami, while the remaining 15 per cent expressed preference for other political parties.
BNP leads among women voters
Gender-based analysis revealed that BNP enjoys stronger support among female voters.
Around 71 per cent of women who took part in the survey said they would vote for BNP, a higher share than among male voters.
Political analysts view this as an indication of growing confidence among women in the party’s leadership and policy promises.
Public expects BNP-led government
Respondents were asked four key questions, including which party they believe will form the next government. On this issue, public opinion tilted heavily toward BNP.
About 77 per cent of respondents said they expect BNP to form the government after the next election, while 74 per cent believe BNP candidates will win in their own constituencies.
Regional variations in support
Regionally, BNP appears dominant in most parts of the country. The party enjoys its strongest backing in Chattogram and Rajshahi divisions, where 74 per cent of voters expressed support.
However, Jamaat-e-Islami has a comparatively strong presence in Barishal and Khulna divisions, securing 29 per cent and 25 per cent support respectively. In the Rangpur region of northern Bangladesh, the Jatiya Party recorded relatively higher backing, with 5.2 per cent of voters favouring the party.
Support for independent candidates remained negligible, with only 0.1 per cent of respondents expressing interest.
Political observers say the data highlights a dramatic shift in voter sentiment and sets the stage for a highly consequential national election.