Jamaat-led bloc faces rifts as Mamunul bets on last-minute seat deal with IAB

The Jamaat-led eleven-party coalition is once again struggling to hold itself together. After two days of frantic bargaining and mixed signals, Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis chief Maulana Mamunul Haque says he “still hopes” the alliance will announce a final seat arrangement with Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB). 

His optimism stands in sharp contrast to the growing signs that IAB is preparing to walk away.

Mamunul briefed reporters Thursday afternoon after a closed-door session at Jamaat’s central office in Moghbazar. 

He claimed that discussions with Islami Andolan were “continuing” and insisted the bloc was trying to move forward as one unit. A formal announcement, he said, would come later in the night.

The picture inside the alliance, however, looks far less confident.

A coalition in damage control

Jamaat and its partners spent Thursday in an emergency huddle that ran from morning through the afternoon. Top leaders, including Jamaat’s Nayeb-e-Amir Dr Syed Abdullah Md Taher, NCP convener Nahid Islam, BDP Chairman Anwarul Islam Chand and AB Party Chairman Mojibur Rahman Monju, took part. Islami Andolan Bangladesh remained absent.

The absence was not accidental. IAB leaders have been signaling displeasure for days over what they describe as a seat distribution process dominated by a few parties. On Wednesday night, social media was flooded with talk that IAB was preparing to break ranks. The party’s Secretary General Principal Yunus Ahmad did little to dispel the speculation.

Speaking to Jago News on Thursday morning, he said the party was “close to the possibility” of exiting the alliance. 

He added that both the Amir and the Nayeb-e-Amir were in Dhaka for critical internal consultations and that the party would announce its position later in the day.

One senior IAB leader from Dhaka Metropolitan North, requesting anonymity, was even blunter. “The chances of staying in this alliance are slim. Some of our leaders wanted unity, but it no longer seems possible. If there is no agreement, there is no alliance.”

Jamaat hopes, IAB hesitates

Despite the clear signals, Mamunul Haque has taken personal responsibility for trying to salvage the deal. According to NDP vice-president Rashed Pradhan, Mamunul has been in contact with Charmonai Pir and his followers to bridge the gaps. Pradhan described the talks as being in the “final stage,” though he admitted the outcome remained uncertain.

His carefully hedged remarks captured the mood: “I will not say the Islamic Movement is in agreement, nor will I say it has left. Everything will be finalised at 8 pm.”

Yet the indications are grim. Islami Andolan Bangladesh leaders have repeatedly said they will not accept any “imposed” decision. 

Senior Joint Secretary General Gazi Ataur Rahman warned on Wednesday that the seat negotiations had reached a point where their party could not take “anyone’s negligence for granted.”

The party has also kept its options open for an entirely new alignment. Reports suggest IAB has been approached by several Islamic parties, including the AB Party and multiple Khelafat factions, to explore a fresh coalition. Yunus Ahmad acknowledged the discussions but insisted no final decision had been taken.

A deal that may already be dead

By Thursday afternoon, IAB’s absence from the alliance meeting spoke louder than any statement. Their Central Publicity Secretary Sheikh Fazlul Karim Maruf confirmed that the party had sent no representative and would issue its own announcement later.

For the Jamaat-led bloc, the stakes are high. Without Islami Andolan, the coalition loses one of its largest and organised components, along with a significant share of its street-level activism. The alliance has portrayed itself as a united Islamic front for the national election, but its internal rifts have now become a public spectacle.

As the scheduled press conference approaches, the alliance is scrambling to present a unified face. But with one foot already out the door, Islami Andolan’s final decision may not wait for Jamaat’s clock.

For now, the only certainty is that the eleven-party coalition – touted as a broad Islamic platform – is negotiating its future with visible cracks and little time left to hide them.