BNP set for upper house majority too as vote math tilts in its favour
Following the 13th national parliamentary elections, the political arithmetic suggests that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party is on course to secure a majority in the proposed upper house of parliament, if it is constituted based on vote share.
According to the party-wise vote calculation report published by the Election Commission of Bangladesh on February 15, BNP received 49.97 per cent of the total votes cast, while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami secured 31.76 per cent.
Although official results for Chattogram-2 and Chattogram-4 have not yet been declared, BNP candidates are reported to have received the highest number of votes in both constituencies. Analysts believe that once these results are finalised, BNP’s overall vote share could comfortably ensure a simple majority in a 100-member upper chamber, if representation is allocated proportionally.
Vote share vs seat share debate
The structure of the upper house remains under discussion. The July Charter proposed forming the chamber on the basis of nationwide vote share, while BNP’s election manifesto suggested allocating seats based on the number of constituencies won.
If the upper house is formed on the basis of vote share, BNP, Jamaat, the National Citizen Party (NCP), Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, and Islami Andolan Bangladesh would all gain representation, provided they crossed the 1 per cent threshold required for entry.
Independent candidates collectively secured 5.79 per cent of the total vote. Political observers note that if they unite under a common platform, they could claim up to six seats in the proposed upper chamber.
According to the party-wise vote data, Islami Andolan Bangladesh secured 2.70 per cent of the total votes, while Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis received 2.09 per cent.
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Bangladesh obtained 0.47 per cent of the vote, and Amar Bangladesh Party (AB Party) garnered 0.28 per cent.
Khilafat Majlis secured 0.76 per cent, while Gono Odhikar Parishad received 0.33 per cent.
Ganosamhati Andolan secured 0.14 per cent, Communist Party of Bangladesh obtained 0.01 per cent of the votes, and Bangladesh Biplobi Workers Party secured 0.04 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) received 0.35 per cent of the total votes.
Among the 151 political parties that contested the elections, 45 parties failed to secure one per cent of the votes.
Lower house sweep strengthens BNP’s position
Out of 297 declared constituencies, BNP won 209 seats, while Jamaat secured 68. If upper house seats are instead distributed on the basis of lower house victories, BNP would receive around 70 seats, Jamaat 23, and NCP two.
Seven independent candidates won in the lower house, and a coordinated independent bloc could potentially secure three upper house seats under that formula.
The lower house composition will also determine the allocation of 50 reserved women’s seats. Based on current projections, BNP is expected to receive at least 35 of those seats, while Jamaat could obtain 11.
A new balance of power
With nearly half of the popular vote and a dominant presence in the lower chamber, BNP appears positioned to shape both houses of parliament if the upper chamber is established. The final framework for forming the upper house will determine whether its majority stems from vote share or constituency victories, but under either scenario, the numbers currently favour the party.
As discussions continue over the legal and constitutional mechanics of the new chamber, the emerging picture suggests that the next parliamentary term may open with BNP holding decisive influence across the legislative structure.