Madhupur fault back in focus as experts warn of massive earthquake risk

Fresh tremors felt across the country on Friday and Saturday have once again brought the Madhupur Fault – one of Bangladesh’s three major seismic zones – into national discussion, triggering renewed fears of a devastating earthquake that could endanger crores of people.

Experts warn that Tangail, Mymensingh, Gazipur and Dhaka lie directly in the danger zone of the active Madhupur Fault, located just 100 kilometres from the capital. A strong earthquake here, they say, could lead to unprecedented loss of life and infrastructure.

Experts warn of millions at risk

According to geological specialists, an earthquake of magnitude 6 to 6.5 on the Madhupur Fault could put nearly 10 million people across four districts – Tangail, Mymensingh, Gazipur and Dhaka – at risk of death.

The concern is heightened because the Madhupur Fault lies within the broader Madhupur Garh region, covering far beyond Madhupur upazila alone. Its proximity to densely populated Dhaka means the capital could face catastrophic destruction if the fault ruptures.

Experts say the fault is “active” and capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude 7 to 7.5 at any time.

Past tremors raise alarm

Several earthquakes in recent years have originated from the Madhupur region.

In September 2019, a 4.2-magnitude quake originated from Madhupur, causing a massive earth crack – half a mile long and up to 20 feet deep – in Bokarbaid village.

The earliest major recorded earthquake linked to this fault occurred in 1885, with a magnitude above 7.

Researchers believe the region has remained dangerously stressed since.

Research highlights catastrophic potential

Multiple studies have warned of extreme consequences if a major earthquake hits the fault:

A 2010 study by the Ministry of Disaster Management projected that a 7.5-magnitude quake could collapse 72,316 concrete buildings and partially damage 56,166 more on the Madhupur Fault.

A separate 2008–09 study estimated that a massive 8.5-magnitude quake at the plate boundary near Bangladesh could destroy 238,164 buildings in Dhaka city alone.

Unplanned high-rises heighten Tangail’s vulnerability

Despite repeated warnings, unchecked construction continues in Tangail and surrounding areas. Many high-rise buildings have reportedly been built without proper architectural, structural, or fire safety approvals.

Residents and experts fear that these multi-storey structures – often packed closely together – could collapse en masse during a major quake, trapping thousands.

Local residents express concern

Madhupur resident and former Joyenshahi Adivasi Unnayan Parishad president Ajay Mri said no awareness programmes have been carried out in the region.

“We live directly on the Madhupur Fault. We are worried because no one is raising awareness,” he told Jago News. “Cracks have appeared here during past quakes. The government must take this seriously.”

Experts urge immediate preparedness

Mir Md Mozammel Haque, Professor of Environment and Resource Science at Maulana Bhashani University of Science and Technology, said the recent four tremors around Dhaka highlight the possibility of a major event.

“The Madhupur Fault may become active at any time. If a 6 to 6.5-magnitude quake hits, large parts of Tangail, Mymensingh, Gazipur and Dhaka could be severely damaged,” he said.

“Earthquakes cannot be prevented – only awareness and preparedness can save lives.”

He added that Tangail’s geological record, including a major quake in 1950 that also altered the Brahmaputra’s course, places the district firmly in the high-risk zone.

Authorities acknowledge readiness gaps

Madhupur Upazila Nirbahi Officer Zubair Hossain admitted that disaster preparedness remains insufficient.

“We are not prepared for a major quake on the Madhupur Fault. We will soon conduct awareness drills and report the matter to the Disaster Ministry,” he said.

Fire Service preparing equipment and volunteers

Tangail Fire Service and Civil Defence Assistant Director Jane Alam said the district’s northern part falls in the “red zone” for earthquakes.

“We have increased equipment at four stations and are training community volunteers for rescue and medical response. But if roads collapse after a major quake, rescue operations will face obstacles,” he warned.

He added that authorities plan to take stricter action regarding high-rise building construction.