Bangladesh GDP to grow by 6.5% in FY26, inflation to ease to 5.2%: IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic about Bangladesh's economic prospects beyond FY25, projecting a significant rebound with 6.5% growth in the 2025–2026 fiscal year (FY26) , according to its latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday (April 22).

However, the global lender has maintained its forecast for Bangladesh’s economic growth at 3.8% for the current fiscal year 2024–2025 (FY25), unchanged from its earlier projection in December 2023.

On the inflation front, the IMF expects it to remain elevated at 10% in FY25, though this is a slight improvement from its previous estimate of 11%. Inflation is projected to ease substantially to 5.2% in FY26.

The IMF’s outlook comes shortly after the Asian Development Bank (ADB) published its Asian Development Outlook, which forecast a similar growth rate of 3.9% for FY25. The ADB, however, expects more modest growth of 5.1% in FY26. It also projected that average annual inflation could rise to 10.2% in FY25 before moderating to 8% the following year.

The ADB attributed persistently high inflation to structural issues, including market inefficiencies caused by regulatory shortcomings, weak competition in wholesale markets, lack of transparent market information, supply chain disruptions, and the depreciation of the taka.

Meanwhile, the Bangladesh government had already revised its own GDP growth projection for FY25 downward to 5.25%—from an initial estimate of 6.75%—citing the ongoing financial crisis, sluggish business activities, and political uncertainty following the recent change in government.